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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.